Currency Exposure to Hedging Currency Risks

Currency Exposure to Hedging Currency Risks Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS, we shall now address the many stipulations regarding issues such as currency exposure and hedging decisions of the AIFS Company. Looking at the theory and practices of Archer-Lock within the company, with the information given we shall now analyze and interpret the report of AIFS. Using the financial Instruments of the foreign exchange market, the effect these instruments have on hedging will further be discussed, as well as the result of these instruments on the hedging decision. It is important to note that Becky Tabaczynski, CFO for the groups high school travel division ACIS, portrayed the idea a good hedging result is gained due to good relationships across the board. Whilst in some companies, hedging is considered a financial decision, independent of the business needs here; were trying to match the business needs. Now with the information provided in the case study, combined with knowledge of hedging options, the topic of currency exposure will be discussed. Q1. What gives rise to the currency exposure at AIFS? Currency exposure is the extent to which the future cash flows of an enterprise, arising from domestic and foreign currency denominated transactions involving assets and liabilities, and generating revenues and expenses are susceptible to variations in foreign currency exchange rates (International Federation of Accountants, 2010). Currency exposure at AIFS can be caused by 3 risks: the bottom-line risk, volume risk and competitive pricing risk. These 3 risks happen at AIFS because of the AIFSs hedging policies, so before analysing these 3 risks it is necessary to analyse AIFSs hedging policies. AIFSs Hedging Policies AIFS starts to hedge foreign currencies between 6 months and 2 years before the main pricing date, and uses forward contracts and currency options to hedge currency; the main hedging technique is forward contracts. Then AIFS uses these currencies to pay its customers expense abroad. AIFS charges USD by catalogue-based price from its customers, so no matter how the exchange rates change in the spot market, AIFS never changes its price in that period. AIFS uses forward contract to hedge before it has completed its sales cycle. So AIFS has to predict its business then hedge based on its prediction, but the situation that the number AIFS pays equals to the number AIFS buys is very hard to carry out. When the currencies that AIFS has bought are smaller than it has to pay, AIFS has to buy some more currencies by using currency options. When the currencies it has bought are greater than it has to pay, currency exposure happens. The Bottom- Line Risk Exchange rate is always fluctuant. EURO is one of the main currencies that AIFS needs to hedge. Looking at the graph, the exchange rate between USD and EURO in January was highest in 2010, which was 1.427$/à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬, and the exchange rate in June was the lowest, which was only 1.221$/à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬, the difference between highest and lowest is 0.206à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬/$, so when purchasing large amounts of EURO by using USD, the large difference of price will appear. The main hedging technique of AIFS is forward contracts, so if the exchange rate at the contract date is higher than the exchange rate at the settlement date, AIFS is at a disadvantage (maybe AIFS can choose currency options at this time, but it needs to pay premium, so the cost may be not reduced so much). When this situation happens, AIFSs cost will be higher and it will lose profit. 2010- American Dollars to 1 EUR Average Rates January 1.42721 USD (20 days average) February 1.36857 USD (20 days average) March 1.35685 USD (23 days average) April 1.34095 USD (21 days average) May 1.25653 USD (21 days average) June 1.22085 USD (22 days average) July 1.277 USD (22 days average) August 1.29029 USD (21 days average) September 1.3067 USD (22 days average) October 1.38978 USD (21 days average) November 1.38806 USD (12 days average) From X- rate.com, 2010 The Volume Risk When AIFS uses forward contract to hedge currencies, it doesnt know the number of customers it will get in this period. AIFS has been doing culture and educational exchanges for more than 40 years and got a very good praise and has a large number of customers, every year many young people go abroad via AFIS. Because its so popular, its hard to say how many customers will be increased next time. Also, war, terrorism and policies and other uncertainties will affect peoples mind, these factors will make more people prefer to stay at home rather than go abroad, and in that case the number of customers will be decreased. So its hard to predict the number of customers, its hard to say whether the number of customers will increase or decrease. In negative situations where there will be a lack of customers, the foreign currencies that have been bought will not be used; this is when currency exposure is evident. The Competitive Pricing Risk When AIFS is purchasing and using currencies, its competitors are doing it as well. These companies may contract with banks in lower exchange rates, which makes their charges lower than AIFS and therefore makes AIFS less competitive. Customers may buy currencies from other companies, and so AIFSs currencies cant be sold up and currency exposure happens. The changes of transportation fees (like train, boat, plane ticket), living fees, hotel fees can also give rise to the currency exposure. When these fees reduced, AIFS will pay less and may not use all of the currencies it has bought. According to AIFSs hedging policies, it has to predict the exchange rate fluctuant, the number of customers, which may be different with the final exchange rate and the volume when selling currencies, so the currency exposure happens. The actions of AIFSs competitors may make AIFS less competitive resulting in minimum sales of the currencies bought, further resulting in currency exposure. So the bottom-line risk, the volume risk and the competitive pricing risk will give rise to the currency exposure at AIFS. Also, the changes of fees may cause currency exposure. Q2. What would happen if Archer-Lock and Tabaczynski did not hedge at all? According to the case, The American Institute for Foreign Students (AIFS) organizes students who study abroad and the cultural exchange programs. It has two major divisions which are Archer-Lock managed The Study Abroad College and the High School Travel division, whose finances Tabaczynski managed. The problem faced by AIFS is the revenues of the company are mainly in US dollars, but most of their costs are in British pounds and Euros. AIFS sets guaranteed prices for its exchanges before its final sales figures are known. Therefore, for AIFS, the foreign exchange hedging is the key important area. The managers use currency hedging to protect their bottom line and cope with changes in exchange rates. But if Archer-Lock and Tabaczynski did not hedge at all, it would mean full exposure to the currency risk, the company could lose a lot of money if USD depreciated. Maybe the company can produce good results and have a really good profit when the USD appreciated if they did not hedge at all, as there are no other losses to erase their total revenue. However, they cannot know what the future sales volume and future exchange rate are, and so they may need to face losing a tremendous amount of money if USD depreciated. The cost base of the company would increase, and the revenues in USD will remain the same, this means their profitability would be erased. Also, AIFS needs to preserve their price guarantee policy. If they did not hedge at all, the company may incur losses by following this policy. Moreover, there may be a difference between final sales volumes and projected sales volume, and this exposes the company to having either more or less of the foreign currency depending on the final sales volume. For instance, as we know from the case, every year AIFS expected 25,000 students in their project. If the currency exchange rate decreased to USD 1.01/EUR, the company could save USD 5.25 million, however, if the exchange rate increased to USD 1.48/EUR, the company lose USD 6.5 million. Q3. 100% hedge with option and 100% hedge with forward The data shows above, When 100% hedge with option, currency rate 1.01, and the outcome is higher than total cost, the company can gain the profit. Rate becomes to 1.22 and 1.48, the outcome is lower than total cost, and the company has risk and a loss of money. When 100% hedge with forward, the fixed rate is locked in 1.22, the outcome is 0. That is means no risk and no profit. Q4. Using the forecast final sales volume of 25,000, the following are the possible outcomes relative to the zero impact scenario described in the case. Zero impact happened with rate (1.22) when they use forward contract were the same as project costs. When dollar becomes weak (1.48) it would cause a negative impact by a loss of money. When dollar becomes strong (1.01) it would cause a positive impact through gain of profit. When the USD is strong (1.01), the more options there are to hedge, the lower the cost. When USD is weak (1.48) the more options there are to hedge, the more the cost. Q5) what hedging decision would you advocate? Should we not hedge at all? As AIFS guaranteed its prices would not change before the next catalogue, if the USD goes weak, AIFS need to more USD to pay for its overseas cost ¸ however the price cannot be changed, which means AIFS will lose money. To eliminate this risk, AIFS better hedge. What do you advocate? (Advantages and Disadvantages) The forward contract is a simple arrangement widely used by the companies to manage the exchange rate risk. It can guarantee the amount of currency AIFS would receive in the expiry date of the contract, so it can get larger profits with forward contracts if AIFS count on a favourable exchange rate. The company can also avoid the 5% option premium, but it is not easy to get the counter party who would agree to fix the time period and the future exchange rate which would result in illiquidity. Thus being bilateral private contracts, the forwards have to be executed. The option contract can eliminate the downside risk and being more flexible, it can be seen as a combination of covered interest arbitrage depending on the difference in currency options and interest rates; it gives the company the right to sell or purchase a currency at an agreed exchange rate, but not the obligation. With the option contracts AIFS can hold the currency until the favourable exchange rate arises, so it would be more secure for the company. However, the premium cost is the disadvantage of option, and it has to be paid up front. Both forward contract and option contact work if the company is tight on cash and cannot spend 5% option premium in this case the forwards contract is a better choice. However, if AIFS has sufficient funds and foresees changes in exchange rates, then it should use option. AIFS does not have to exercise the contract when currency moves to unfavourable exchange rates. What happens if sales volumes are lower (10000) or higher (30000) than expected (25000)? According to appendix 3 and 4: The sales volume increase to 30000, exchange rate is 1.01. AIFS Company can gain the profit. Exchange rate is 1.22 and 1.48, AIFS Company exist risk loss the money; but when use 100% forward to hedge Company can avoids risk and there is no profit. The sales volume is decrease to 10000, the total cost is 1000* 10000= à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬10000000 There are 3 possible situations that will happen at this time. = 0.4 = 40% According to the calculation above, when AIFSs currency hedge is covered less than 40% of its prediction (it predicts 25000 sales volumes), AIFS needs to buy some more currency to reach à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬10000000 by using spot trading rate; when AIFSs currency hedge is covered at 40%, the currency it buys is equal to à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬10000000; when the currency hedge covered over 40%, AIFS cant use all of the EUR it has bought, so AIFS has to sell the extra EUR or save them and use them in the next period. 1.48 1.01 10000 30000 Source: AIFS case There will be 4 outcomes with the in the money and out of money positions and high and low sales volume (30000 or 10000). Square 1 shows low sales volume (10000) with strong USD that when the company is out of money (1.01USD/EUR). AIFS has an excess of currency. In this case, if it locked into surplus forward contracts then it would lose money. So the option contract is more favourable. AIFS does not execute the contract, it just lets it expire. In square 2 shows low sales volume (10000) with weak USD, The requirement of the currency is below the projection (25000), and the exchange rate is high (1.48USD/EUR). If AIFS uses forward contract the gain is larger compared to when it uses options contract because the options contract costs 5% of the nominal USD strike price. In square 3 the exchange rate moved out of money (1.01USD/EUR) and the sales go higher (30000) than expected. So AIFS doesnt have to buy euro at higher rate, therefore, the Options contract is better, as the extra volume they need (5000), can be bought at the spot rate. The increase of the Spot and Fixed rates and the difference of the volume of sales are the reason for company loss. The tricky square 4 shows when the exchange rate moved in the money (1.48 USD/EUR) and AIFSs sales volume came in higher (30000) than projections, which means the company need more currency (5000), however, the exchange rate is high. In this case, Forward contracts should be used and the extra volume at the spot rates should be bought. The increase of sales may offset the downside. For companies that work with more than one currency, several hedging techniques are available to guard against foreign exchange fluctuations. After studying and addressing the case study of AIFS, it can be concluded that the changes in fees can be the cause to currency exposure. The fact that the companys revenues are in USD, and costs in GBP and Euros may result in a rise to currency exposure. After analyzing the affects of financial instruments such as forward and option contracts will have on the company, it has been decided that the company would be at a better advantage with Forward contract in order to prevent risks. AIFS charges USD by catalogue-based prices from its customer, and as the company guaranteed the prices will not change, if the rate of the USD decreases then the company will be at a loss as they will have to cover other expenses with the currency they have bought, and in order to prevent this risk, the company would be in a better position if they hedged. REFERENCES: International Federation of Accountants, 2010, http://www.mia.org.my/handbook/guide/imap/imap_3.htm#Business%20Implications [Accessed on 4/11/2010] X-rate.com, 2010, http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/EUR/hist2010.html [Accessed on 16/11/2010]

Indian Essay Essay

Throughout American culture, racism and stereotypes have been prevalent, yet the Disney movie Pocahontas is an attempt to better understand racial intolerance towards Native Americans. Though the movie is not completely historically accurate, the context of it portrays a more truthful story of the first European and Native American encounters which were mostly hostile ones, contrary to the modern American belief of â€Å"Thanksgiving† like events. However, there were attempts of understanding each other’s cultures and beliefs which can be displayed in the Disney movie through the interactions of characters, Captain John Smith and Pocahontas. While symbolism is present throughout the movie, Disney uses combinations of music, colors, and lighting along with metaphorical character interaction, to play on viewers emotions in order to better understand the struggles and hardships felt by both Europeans and Native Americans during their early encounters. The history between Native Americans and Europeans has not always been a positive one. As seen in the movie the British settlers voyage off towards the new world in search of large amounts of gold, but in reality the British desired the vast amounts of â€Å"untouched† land. Since most children do not understand the value of land, Disney uses the rewards of gold and riches in order to explain the British motives for coming to the Americas to the children audience. When the British arrive in the movie they are shown eager to seek to destroy anything that comes in their path that is not valuable, with minimal care for the land or the people that inhabit it, those being the Native Americans. During these scenes there are very dark colors and lights along with intense music to show the British mindset during these times. This is where the difference between the two cultures seems to become prevalent. The Europeans were at a point in their culture where conquering and colonizing is all they desired, and natives were mere obstacles in their way. They used destructive ways and tactics to scare the Native American people. While the British were on a path of destruction, the Native Americans are shown living a very peaceful and spiritual life, not only living off the land but using it to its full capacity. This harmonious relationship between Natives and the land is shown during the â€Å"Colors of the Wind† scene where Pocahontas takes John Smith on a romantic and spiritual ourney of the land while singing a very passionate song describing the Natives relationship with nature. The use of a very colorful but yet organic spectrum of colors and lights along with the peaceful and loving music serve to help convey the Natives beliefs to the audience. This also shows how the Natives lived with nature and felt that they are no more important to it than the plants and organisms that also lived there. The native’s efficient use of the land and its resources are the reason why the land in the Americas looked untouched to the European settlers. These two extremely different views of life along with a communication barrier (which is partially displayed in the movie) are the reason why it was so difficult for the two sides to lived The movie attempts to ease racial tensions by presenting both main characters in an omniscient light. When John Smith (who can be seen as a metaphor for European beliefs at the time) and Pocahontas (who can be seen as representation of the native’s beliefs and lifestyle) first encounter one another they do not know what to think. When she sees him behind the waterfall she slowly moves towards him being as precautious as possible knowing that they come from very different background. As the movie goes on you see them slowly start to fall in love with each which shows an understanding of each other and their different beliefs and morals, which would allow for a possibility of a peaceful coexistence of both sides. The love between John Smith and Pocahontas invokes the viewer to wonder what it would be like presently if Europeans and Native Americans were welcoming of each other instead of hostile. However, this fantasy is inevitably destroyed by reality, when the extremes on both sides clash in violence and death is the result. This plays on the viewer’s emotions creating a hatred towards both extremes for destroying something that could have been beautiful. By doing this Disney is able to manipulate the audience’s emotions by making them feel regretful for what had happened in the past. Disney’s attempt to help youth understand the basic Native American culture and their morals by making the movie Pocahontas, in my opinion was a success. Although it’s not entirely historically accurate the movie is able to get a broad sense of how events unfolded during early European-Native American encounters to its intended audience of children. By using different colors, music, and lighting in combination with the metaphorical character interaction, Disney is able to take it a step further than just understanding what happened, by leaving the viewer with a sense of sorrow toward the past and dreaming about what could have been.

Uva-F-1560, Hertz - 1415 Words

The bidding process for Hertz began when William Ford Jr. announced plans to explore â€Å"strategic alternatives† for Hertz in April 2005. Two months later in June, an S-1 registration statement was filed setting up a â€Å"dual track process† that would result in a Hertz IPO should other sale prospects fail. This decision affects the bidding process in multiple ways. For one there is less time for the two bidding groups to come up with a price and resulting agreement. They are forced to act quickly and find a price that the Hertz management will agree upon. If they don’t do this, then Hertz will just go through with the IPO. This could lead to a driven up price, since the bidding groups will do whatever it takes to win the bid. Hertz is an†¦show more content†¦ABS debt was not only less expensive (it carried a low interest rate around 4.5%), but it provided a more flexible financing arrangement since debt could increase or decrease with fleet size. Also, senior debt and purchase price multiples had increased to 4x EBITDA and 8x EBITDA respectively. These numbers are used in coming up with a purchase price multiple, which is a key drive in finding the enterprise value. When trying to find the Enterprise Value for Hertz, the sponsor group took a couple key assumptions. First off, management had projected transaction volume to grow 6.9% in 2005, which according to the case is one of the key drivers of the rental car business. This seems to be a reasonable assumption considering that travel was starting to rebound from the lows post 9/11. Also, the Bidding group believed $400-$600 million in annual EBITDA savings was attainable by 2009 (confirmed by external industry advisors). Hertz was behind in EBITDA margins, increasing operating expenses outpacing revenue growth, the off-airport growth strategy had significant losses, higher nonfleet capital expenditures, Europe’s RAC SGamp;A was 3 times higher than those in the U.S., and return on assets lagged competitors. The bidding group thought by targeting these problem areas, and others, they could generate higher profits. Another assumption

The Institution Of Slavery And Attitudes Towards It...

Question 1 - The institution of slavery and attitudes towards it changed dramatically in the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Describe the changes and explain the various arguments made for and against the expansion of slavery. Who, if anyone, was arguing for abolition and who was defending the institution of slavery? Finally, in your opinion was their room for compromise on the issue of slavery that could have averted conflict? Why or why not? From as far back as history goes there has been slavery and the sad fact is that even today slavery is still part of society. In the 18th and 19th century the largest movement for abolishing slavery took place. Many notable men in history spoke out against slavery and helped to fuel the fire of the pro-slavery groups. Benjamin Franklin said â€Å"Slavery is such an atrocious debasement of human nature, that its very extirpation, if not performed with solicitous care, may sometimes open a source of serious evils.† (Franklin, 1789) Thomas Jefferson once said, But, as it is, we have the wolf by the ear, and we can neither hold him, nor safely let him go. Justice is in one scale, and self-preservation in the other. (Ford, 1892-1899) Slavery was a hot topic in political debates as well and a great example was the speech given by Abraham Lincoln, House Divided. Douglas and Lincoln debated many times over popular sovereignty and slavery. George Fitzhugh, a supporter of slavery, wrote: â€Å"The negro slaves of the South are the happiest,Show MoreRelatedThe Essential Questions5521 Words   |  23 Pagesmodernity, there are in fact two modernities: the first is the modernity of the Renaissance, and the second is the modernity of the counter-Renaissance that is associated with the Enlightenment. Humanists Eand anti-Cartesians continued to write throughout the period of the counter-Renaissance, but the counter-Renaissance won the day. Rationalism and foundationalism of the modern period is a logical or direct outgrowth of the Renaissance, but in some important ways a reversal of the original RenaissanceRead MoreOne Significant Change That Has Occurred in the World Between 1900 and 2005. Explain the Impact This Change Has Made on Our Lives and Why It Is an Important Change.163893 Words   |  656 PagesCataloging-in-Publication Data Essays on twentieth century history / edited by Michael Peter Adas for the American Historical Association. p. cm.—(Critical perspectives on the past) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-1-4399-0269-1 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 978-1-4399-0270-7 (paper : alk. paper)—ISBN 978-1-4399-0271-4 (electronic) 1. History, Modern—20th century. 2. Twentieth century. 3. Social history—20th century. 4. World politics—20th century. I. Adas, Michael, 1943– II. American HistoricalRead MoreCorrectional Administration Reviewer18383 Words   |  74 PagesInternational Congress was held at London w/c established the International Penal and Penitentiary Commission; 1875- its headquarters was established at Hague, Netherlands. ï  ± 1876- the Elmira Reformatory was established in New York. ï  ± the First separate institution for women were established in Indiana and Massachusetts. DIVISIONS OF CRIMINOLGY: 1. Sociology of Law is an attempt at scientific analysis of the conditions under w/c criminal laws develop and w/c is seldom included in the book of criminology. 2